Appraising Bordeaux 2020: High Ratings, But What About the Prices for First Growths?

The main question we at JamesSuckling.com had after we published our En Primeur report on the 2020 Bordeaux vintage wasn’t on the quality of the more than 1,302 barrel samples we tasted – they were, on average, terrific – but on where pricing for the vintage was headed.

Although James said in the report that the outstanding quality of so many of the wines “highlights the genius of Bordeaux viticulture and winemaking,” he added that the confused state of pricing could ultimately be a negative for the 2020 vintage, with many producers setting price points at a premium to the 2019 vintage, which was notable for the budgetary goodwill it generated for France’s famous wine region.

“It doesn’t make much sense to buy a wine in barrel at the moment for many people if the same quality wine is available from other top vintages already in bottle,” James said, noting that estates that set their 2020 prices at the same level as current wines in the market were selling better, while those that set their prices higher were not faring as well.

“For example, Angelus increased its price by 13 percent and reportedly didn’t sell very well," he said. Angelus sold well after high ratings from a number of critics including James.

TASTING BORDEAUX: Hear Ariana Khaida's thoughts on pricing and watch James taste the 2020 Mouton Rothschild.

CHASING A PERFECT WINE: Chateau Haut-Brion manager Jean-Philippe Delmas comments on his primary 2020s.

As Ariane Khaida, the director of Chateau Mouton-Rothschild, said during a video chat with James: “For sure we don’t want to break the great dynamic we had last year for all of the Bordeaux region. This is key, and we have to find the right way” with pricing.

In the end, as James said, the market will decide if the prices are right or wrong. So where do these producers stand with their pricing of the 2020 vintage?

Liv-ex, the global marketplace for the wine trade, recently released a report showing where the 2020 prices could be heading. Focusing on the 2020 First Growths, Liv-ex takes current prices for back vintages up to 2019 and envisions some “fair value” landing spots for the current vintage of Haut-Brion, Margaux and Mouton Rothschild, with proposed 5%, 10% and 20% increases on the 2019 ex-negociant prices.

For the Chateau Lafite Rothschild Pauillac 2020, which James likened to “the great wines of the 1980s and 1990s,” the price has already been set, as can be seen in the chart below. The chart graphs market prices for various vintages (in British pounds) versus “Benchmark Critic” scores.

James gave this wine a score of 99-100, calling it “rather ethereal and so refined with finesse, focus and brightness that provides incredible energy and pedigree.” Other critics were equally effusive in their praise, and the price on the 2020 reflects that positive energy from critics: it sells at £5,880 per case – a premium of 8.9% on the 2019. Despite the price increase, Liv-ex said, the wine remains at what it considers to be in “Fair Value” territory, given its placement below Liv-ex’s methodological regression line.

In fact, the Lafite 2020 is well below the price of several recent vintages, including the 2018, 2016, 2009 and 2008, among others. And given that the benchmark critic score for the 2020 is 97 – the same score as for the 2019 and 2016, one point ahead of the 2018 and two points ahead of the 2017 – the Lafite 2020 could almost be viewed as a great-value wine (as could the 2019). Considering the 2020 and 2019 are what James referred to as a “high-quality trilogy of superlative years” along with the 2018, the pricing on the bottles seems more than fair.

LAFITE'S 2020: Chateau Lafite Rothschild's Saskia de Rothschild, Eric Kohler and Juliette Couderc on the latest vintage.

The greatest upside for pricing on the 2020s lies with the Mouton Rothschild, Liv-ex said – especially given that the 2019 has risen 39% since its release, the most among all the First Growths from the vintage.

Liv-ex advised, though, that Mouton limit its price increase for the 2020 over the 2019 to no more than 10%. Above that level, it said, the 2014 (which had the same Benchmark Critic score) would be a better value. Khaida, Mouton’s director, should be on track with finding “the right way” with pricing on the 2020 so long as she minds the Liv-ex guidance.

James gave the Chateau Mouton Rothschild Pauillac 2020 a score of 99-100, above Liv-ex’s Benchmark Critic score of 97, calling it “great and impressive,” with “plushness and precision.”

“It’s full and very friendly, even seductive, in a rich and opulent way, yet it always remains fresh. Balanced and refined,” the tasting note said.

The Margaux, which Liv-ex called “one of the highest-scored First Growths on average and also the one First Growth with the lowest variance in its scores,” similarly looks to be good value for the 2020 vintage.

“The 2019 has climbed in price 19% since release,” Liv-ex said. “This means that, with its improved score, an increase of up to 20% would render the 2020 Fair Value, and still below the current price of the similarly rated 2016.”

James called the Châteaux Margaux Margaux 2020 “a fantastic wine,” with a "wonderful combination of refinement and power."

BEST OF THE BUNCH? Tasting the Margaux Margaux 2020 with Philippe Bascaules.

James also loved the Chateau Haut-Brion Pessac-Léognan 2020, giving it 99-100 points. Liv-ex gave it the highest Benchmark Critic rating (97) along with the Margaux of the First Growths, but there still seems to be some upside when setting the 2020 price. James called it a “superb” wine, “with incredible tannins that are wonderfully fine-grained. It’s really powerful,” and wondered if it could be considered “the wine of the 2020 vintage.”

The Haut-Brion 2019 had the second-biggest price rise since last summer, climbing 23%. Liv-ex said a price increase of as much as 20% over the original price on the 2019 would therefore not be out of line for the 2020, and would keep it not only below the current price of the 2019 but also well below the regression line.

In all, any worries about the prices for the 2020 Bordeaux vintage potentially outpacing market realities may be overblown. With several previous vintages already tipping the balance on extreme pricing and average prices for the 2019 coming in at bargain level, modest price increases for the 2020 are not out of order.

– Vincent Morkri

The data in this article has been provided by Liv-ex, the global marketplace for the wine trade. Along with a comprehensive database of real-time transaction prices, Liv-ex offers the wine trade smarter ways to do business. Liv-ex offers access to £80m worth of wine and the ability to trade with 530+ other wine businesses worldwide. They also organise payment and delivery through their storage, transportation and support services. Wine businesses can find out how to price, buy and sell wine smarter at www.liv-ex.com.